The Hryvnia Awaits Fluctuations: Expert Named 2 Critical Days in Early May.

Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev shared his forecast for the exchange rate of the dollar and euro in Ukraine from May 1 to May 7, 2025. According to his forecast, currency fluctuations will depend on several factors, including the anticipated meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

Influence of International Factors

The main driver of volatility in the global currency market remains trade wars and the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump’s policies. However, even taking into account Trump’s usual statements, his loud remarks continue to impact fluctuations in euro-dollar pairs and gold.

'Markets are gradually getting used to Trump’s unpredictable statements, but each of his loud declarations still affects the fluctuations of the euro-dollar pair and the jumps in gold'

At the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for May 7, a reduction in the interest rate to stimulate the US economy is likely. Currently, the Fed's rate is 4.5% per annum, while in the Eurozone it stands at 2.25% for deposit operations, 2.4% for refinancing, and 2.65% for margin lending activities.

Forecast for Major Currencies

The main forecast corridors for fluctuations in currency pairs look like this:

• EUR/USD: from 1.125 to 1.144;
• USD/UAH on the interbank: from 41.20 to 41.85 UAH;
• EUR/UAH: from 46.35 to 47.88 UAH.

The largest fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in Ukraine are expected on May 6-7, during the days of the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech.

Specifics of the Ukrainian Market

In the first days of May, special factors will be at play in the Ukrainian currency market:

1. The Effect of the First Working Day - on May 1, market activity decreases as companies summarize the previous month's results and develop strategies for the future;
2. Opening Card Limits for the population to purchase currency and deposits for a term longer than three months, which increases overall demand for currency;
3. Interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which will spend approximately 480 to 730 million dollars in the first week of May to support the hryvnia. According to Kozyrev, this amount is non-critical given reserves of 42.4 billion dollars.

It is predicted that the daily volume of interbank transactions will range from 145 to 230 million dollars, with the lowest indicator on May 1.

Expectations for the Cash Market

Most exchange offices, financial companies, and banks in the cash market will establish the following spreads:

• When exchanging for dollars: from 20 to 25 kopecks;
• When exchanging for euros: from 20 to 50 kopecks.

In banks, the cash dollar rate will range from 41 to 42 UAH, euros from 46.30 to 48.20 UAH. In exchange offices and financial companies, the dollar will cost between 41.10-41.90 UAH, euros - 46.35-48.10 UAH.

'The National Bank will be present in the Ukrainian currency interbank to smooth out external risks and challenges regarding the euro-dollar pair'