Dollar at 45, 46 or 52: Analysts disagree on the hryvnia exchange rate forecasts.

Ukrainian financial experts: the hryvnia may weaken slightly, but there will be no devaluation

According to the website 'hromadske', Ukrainian financial experts assess the future hryvnia exchange rate with moderate optimism. They believe that there will be no significant devaluation of the hryvnia in the near future, but a slightly weaker currency support can be expected.

The head of the analytical department of the 'Financial Pulse' center, Dilyara Mustafayeva, predicts that by the end of 2025, the hryvnia may lose 10-12% of its value, and the national currency exchange rate will be around 46 hryvnias per dollar. She also emphasizes the connection between demand for foreign currency and the risk of devaluation.

Buying currency is a way to protect savings, but excessive demand can create a risk of devaluation, forming a 'vicious circle'. Therefore, high-interest deposits may become a smart alternative to protect funds. Especially since during the martial law, the state guarantees 100% return of deposits, regardless of the amount.

According to the state 'Oschadbank', the hryvnia exchange rate could reach 45 hryvnias per dollar by the end of 2025. The strengthening dollar is facilitated by the international situation, which also affects Ukraine's economic situation, including the exchange rate.

Analysts from the investment company ICU also predict the hryvnia exchange rate at 45.7 hryvnias per dollar by the end of the year and clarify that the exchange rate increase will not exceed 10%.

The chairman of the 'Globus' bank, Sergey Mamedov, gives a short-term forecast: according to him, in the second quarter of 2025, the official dollar exchange rate will average 41.8-42.8 hryvnias per dollar, which means a growth of 1.8% from the beginning of the year to July.

However, there are also more pessimistic scenarios. Dmitry Churin from Eavex Capital predicts devaluation of the hryvnia to 52 hryvnias per dollar over the next three years. He also notes that positive scenarios of foreign investments may change the situation for the better.

Currently, the assessments of financial experts regarding the future hryvnia exchange rate are moderate, not predicting a sharp drop in the currency, but indicating a possible weakening. It is important to consider the international situation and demand for foreign currency when analyzing the exchange rate.