Oil prices changed against the backdrop of events in the Middle East.

Oil prices fell by 1% on Monday, June 30, due to a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospects of another increase in OPEC+ production in August, which improved supply forecasts. This was reported by Reuters.

Brent crude futures fell by 66 cents, or 0.97%, to 67.11 dollars per barrel ahead of the expiration of the August contract. The more active September contract traded at 65.97 dollars, down 83 cents. American oil of the West Texas Intermediate grade dropped by 94 cents, or 1.43%, to 64.58 dollars per barrel.

The war that began on June 13 with Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities caused Brent prices to spike above 80 dollars per barrel after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites, followed by a sharp decline to 67 dollars after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Expected increase in production and low level of active oil rigs

Additional pressure on the market is exerted by information from four OPEC+ delegates, who reported that the group is preparing to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, which will continue similar increases in May, June, and July. OPEC+ plans to hold a meeting on July 6, and this will be the fifth monthly increase since the group began to unwind production cuts in April.

In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs, an indicator of future production, decreased by six to 432 last week, reaching the lowest level since October 2021, Baker Hughes reported.

Shocks in the global oil market have once again shown instability as oil prices fell due to decreased geopolitical risks and the announcement of increased OPEC+ production. The price rebound is linked to the announcement of a possible increase in oil production, which caused a decline in supply forecasts and pushed oil prices per barrel lower.