Analysts Forecast Four Scenarios for Ceasefire in Ukraine.

Analysts at JPMorganChase have considered various possible outcomes for the end of the war in Ukraine. According to their forecasts, a ceasefire is possible in the summer of 2025 under the 'Georgian' scenario.

Experts believe that in the case of a conflict resolution with Russia, it is not necessary to conclude a comprehensive peace treaty. It may take Russia up to 118 years to occupy all of Ukraine's territory according to current recovery rates.

'South Korea' Scenario

This scenario allows for Ukraine not to join NATO or fully regain control over its territories. The presence of European troops as a deterrent, along with security guarantees and intelligence data from the U.S., could give the country a chance for stable development.

A part of the territory under Kyiv's control could become a successful, democratic, and wealthy region. The unfreezing of $300 billion of Russian assets would also contribute to faster reconstruction. This scenario is the most beneficial, but its probability of implementation is estimated at 15%.

'Israel' Scenario

This variant envisages deep military and economic support without direct involvement of foreign troops. Ukraine could enhance its defense capabilities, modernize its army, and develop its own means of deterring the aggressor. However, the threat from Russia would remain constant.

Russia would demand the lifting of sanctions and seek to improve relations with the West, especially with the U.S. The likelihood of this scenario being realized is estimated at 20%.

'Georgia' Scenario

Without military support and foreign troops, Ukraine could find itself in a state of prolonged instability, slow economic growth, and loss of international support.

This could lead to the halting of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration and a return under Russia's influence. The probability of realizing this scenario is estimated to be the highest at 50%.

'Belarus' Scenario

If the U.S. denies support to Ukraine and Europe cannot fill this void, Russia could force Ukraine to capitulate and attempt to make it a controlled state.

This would mean a victory for the Kremlin, a fracture of the West, and the destruction of the post-war world order. This scenario is the worst of all possible ones, but has a low likelihood of implementation – only 15%.

The Times newspaper described four scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine, all of which do not foresee the sudden death of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

By analyzing JPMorganChase geopolitical forecasts, it becomes clear that the situation in Ukraine is complex and unpredictable. While each scenario has its pros and cons, it is difficult to accurately predict the further development of events. It is important for Ukraine to maintain its defense capabilities and faith in its abilities to ensure a peaceful resolution of the conflict and stable development of the country.